Consider the following time series data.
Problem 523
Consider the following time series data.
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Consider the following time series data.
Just from $8 /Page 0r 300 words
Quarter  Year 1  Year 2  Year 3 
1  4  6  7 
2  2  3  6 
3  3  5  6 
4  5  7  8 
(a)  Choose the correct time series plot.  


_________________  
What type of pattern exists in the data?  
_________________  
(b)  Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise.  
If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: 300)  
Value = __________6.667_______ + ___1______________ Qtr1_{t} + _____3____________ Qtr2_{t} + __________2_______ Qtr3_{t}  
(c)  Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (b).  
If required, round your answers to three decimal places.  


(d)  Use a multiple regression model to develop an equation to account for trend and seasonal effects in the data. Use the dummy variables you developed in part (b) to capture seasonal effects and create a variable t such that t = 1 for Quarter 1 in Year 1, t = 2 for Quarter 2 in Year 1,… t = 12 for Quarter 4 in Year 3.  
If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: 300)  
Value = 3.4167______________ + __0.2188______________ Qtr1_{t} + _____2.1875___________ Qtr2_{t} + __1.5938_______________ Qtr3_{t} + ___0.4063______________ t  
(e)  Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (d).  
Round your interim computations and final answers to three decimal places.  


(f)  Is the model you developed in part (b) or the model you developed in part (d) more effective?  
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to three decimal places.  


I only need (f) answered  
I only need (f) answered Both MSE needs to be included for part (b) and (d).  
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